There are many risks that clients face as they enter retirement. These including longevity risk (outliving savings), inflation risk (the risk of cost of living/ medical expenses increasing over time), health risk (unexpected and sometimes costly health problems), family risk (unforeseen needs of family members), policy risk (changes to governing rules affecting retirees) and market risk (the chance of investment losses in superannuation/ investments).
But what about the impact of the order and timing of the investment returns experienced by a retiree? This is a lesser-known risk called Sequencing Risk and can be thought of as the risk of experiencing investment returns in an unfavourable order, which in some cases if not addressed- can result in retirees having less money than they require in their retirement.
An example is a person who enters retirement and retains a more growth focussed mix in their superannuation/ investment (with a greater weighting of shares/ property). A market downturn occurs as they enter retirement or shortly after, reducing their balance at the start of retirement, while at the same time they are withdrawing funds for living expenses. These events and this negative sequence could ultimately mean less longevity of their retirement funds.
It has been noted that the order of returns doesn’t particularly impact younger investors still accumulating wealth with a long-term time frame. Also there is also the possibility that ‘good’ sequencing risk can also occur when a favourable return event happens early in retirement which can actually assist investors long term.
But when you are also drawing down on funds (ie in retirement) sequencing risk matters and we find many retirees are concerned with downside risks like this in their retirement.
So, if we are to be concerned with sequencing risk then what are some of viable strategies that can help to mitigate against sequencing risk for retirees?
- Diversify Portfolio and Review Asset Allocation
Ensuring adequate investment portfolio diversification is one proven way to reduce sequencing risk- basically the old adage ‘don’t put all your eggs in one basket’. Managing asset allocation and investing over different types of asset classes can help to reduce the volatility of both investment returns and downward movements in individual asset classes over time. Diversifying away from just investing solely or heavily into shares/ growth assets and adding defensive investments like bonds, can be an effective way to help mitigate sequence-of-returns risk.
- Consider Withdrawal Rate and Timing
Another noted strategy to mitigate sequencing risk is to consider and modify the withdrawals a retiree makes from their retirement portfolio. This can be achieved via considered timing of withdrawals of funds by the retiree and taking a more flexible approach to withdrawal rates when needed. It can also be achieved via the limiting the overall withdrawal rate of funds and ensuring a safe withdrawal rate- for instance the 4% withdrawal rate (of a client’s total portfolio balance) has been historically popular. By limiting the withdrawal rate this means less funds drawn down during market downturns and that the retiree’s invested funds may last longer. It should be noted however that within superannuation in Australia where much of retirement funds sit- that there are legislated minimum drawdown requirements when in the preferentially taxed ‘pension phase’ which mean withdrawal rates have to increase over time to some extent.
- Consider Annuities
Another strategy is to consider investing part of a retirement savings pool into an annuity or guaranteed lifetime income stream. This has the benefit of incorporating an income stream not affected by market returns into the overall portfolio and by a client holding a product like this with regular cash flows this can mitigate sequencing risk and increase the success rate of a retirement plan. This strategy can also help to protect investors against the longevity risk of outliving one’s assets and is an effective sequencing risk mitigator- where portfolio risk is pooled and spread with other investors. There can also be preferential treatment of these products under the Centrelink Age Pension test (if applicable to the retiree).
- Consider Cash Reserves
It is preferable for a retired client to always have some reserves or savings in cash- inside their superannuation/ investment portfolio and in their personal bank accounts. This can mean that if the market sees a downturn, but personal expense needs arise- that these can be funded first from this cash while they ride out the downturn and allow their market linked investments to recover.
At Chapters Retirement Partners- we help our clients to plan for a comfortable retirement while managing risks such as sequencing risk along the way.
If you require a financial partner to check these types of financial blind spots for you as you plan for and live in retirement- please get in touch with us.